Thursday, January 31, 2013

Iran Zoroastrians celebrate ancient feast of fire

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) ? Followers of Iran's minority Zoroastrian religion gathered after sunset to mark Sadeh ? an ancient mid-winter feast dating to Iran's pre-Islamic past that is also drawing new interest from Muslims.

Zoroastrian priests, dressed in white to symbolize purity, recited verses from Avesta, the holy Zoroastrian book, before more than 2,000 people on Tuesday.

Men and women in traditional dress carried torches and lit a huge bonfire on the outskirts of Tehran Tuesday, as young people danced.

Sadeh, the feast of creation of fire, has been observed since ancient days, when Zoroastrianism was the dominant religion in the powerful Persian empire.

Zoroastrianism lost dominance after Muslim Arabs invaded and conquered Persia in the seventh century. Today, most of Iran's 75 million people are Shiite Muslims, and the ruling establishment is led by clerics who preach a strict version of Islam.

After the 1979 revolution brought in the hard-line Islamic religious government, many Zoroastrians emigrated to the U.S., and their festivals were strongly discouraged.

About 20,000 Zoroastrians remain today ? down from 300,000 in the 1970s, when many emigrated to the United States. They make up part of Iran's small non-Muslim population, including 150,000 Christians and 15,000 Jews.

Although the feast of fire has traditionally been marked by Zoroastrians, many Muslim Iranians joined the festival Tuesday.

"This festival promotes friendship and happiness. The feast is an opportunity to thank God for the creation of fire. The light and warmth of fire brings affection among communities. That's the reason we are here," Zoroastrian priest Sohrab Hengami said.

Ali Doosti, an Iranian Muslim who attended Tuesday's celebration, said Sadeh should not been seen from a purely religious perspective.

"Sadeh is an ancient celebration that symbolizes Iran's rich cultural heritage. There is no reason why Iranian Muslims shouldn't observe the event," he said.

To Zoroastrians, fire represents life and the inherent nature of Ahura Mazda ? total goodness.

"Sadeh is a celebration of fire, but we are not fire worshippers. We worship one God," said Ardeshir Khorshidian, another priest.

Fire plays a central role in worship as a symbol of truth and the spirit of God. Prayer is often performed in front of a fire, and consecrated fires are kept perpetually burning in major temples.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/iran-zoroastrians-celebrate-ancient-feast-fire-062407561.html

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Wednesday, January 30, 2013

PST: Pregnant Rodriguez to miss NWSL season

So here?s a new twist for the already hamstrung Seattle Reign. The team that was allocated Megan Rapinoe (who won?t report until June) and Mexican playmaker Teresa Noyola (also contracted with a European club until June) may now be without the player expected to be their leading scorer during the upcoming campaign, though there may have been little way to foresee why U.S. Women?s National Team forward Amy Rodriguez won?t play for Reign FC this season.

Sources confirmed late Tuesday evening that Rodriguez is pregnant, with her and husband Adam expecting the couple?s first child. Seattle Reign FC later confirmed via Twitter that the 25-year-old will miss the upcoming domestic season.

?We congratulate Amy and her husband on this wonderful news,? team owner Bill Predmore said via press release late Tuesday night. ?We let her know we are here to support her in any way we can and that we look forward to having her join the club in 2014.?

Putting sports aside, congratulations are in order. The parents-to-be, married since October 2011, are about to embark on a new family. On the list of things that transcend sport, this is near the top. Assuming this is relatively recent news, the joy of days like these should highlight a long life together.

But there are obvious competitive implications, both for the national team and Rodriguez?s new NWSL club.

On the international level, Rodriguez was called into Tom Sermanni?s first national team camp, and there?s no indication yet she?ll miss early March?s important Algarve Cup tournament. Perhaps as important, she won?t miss the vital training sessions and friendlies that define these first weeks under Sermanni?s stewardship. For Rodriguez, a player who was slowly losing playing time under Pia Sundhage, those first impressions are especially important.

Come spring, Rodriguez seems set to step aside, but with the type of physical shape in which U.S. women?s national team members keep themselves, she may not miss ?many national team opportunities. Christie Rampone legendarily was pregnant as player and coach for WPS?s first title winners. Rodriguez won?t replicate that feat, but if she delivers in late summer, she could be back playing before the end of the calendar year.

Her time out of the team is unlikely to make-or-break her fortunes with the national team, especially considering much of the summer?s focus will be on the domestic season. As far as the national team ambitions of the two-time Olympic gold medalist, the timing couldn?t better.

Domestically, however, the effect is obvious. Seattle loses one of their best players, and with limits on free agency, it?s unclear how the Reign can come close to replacing her probable contributions. An already mixed offseason for general manager Amy Carnell and head coach Laura Harvey just got more complicated. Whereas Seattle looked like one of the winners on allocation day, now no team in the league may be in worse shape.

?Amy?s pregnancy came as a surprise and has introduced some challenges that we are now beginning to work through,? Harvey said on Tuesday.

Expect Seattle to work with the league to determine what kind of roster and salary cap flexibility the team might get. According to the team?s Facebook, they?ve already reached agreements with three free agents and one international.

?In light of the news, we are conferring with NWSL about potential adjustments to the cap and roster,? Carnell said.

If U.S. Soccer does right by the them, Seattle may get some extra room to try and replace A-Rod.

Source: http://prosoccertalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/30/amy-rodriguez-pregnant/related/

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EU turns down UPS acquisition of TNT

BRUSSELS (AP) ? The European Union has confirmed its rejection of a $6.9 billion deal for UPS to acquire Dutch delivery company TNT Express ? two weeks after the U.S. company pulled out of the venture because of EU objections.

Antitrust Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said Wednesday that European businesses "would have been directly harmed" by the takeover "because it would have drastically reduced choice between providers and probably led to price increases."

UPS had offered in March to buy TNT, Europe's second-largest delivery company, to better compete with Europe's largest, Deutsche Post's DHL. UPS said that it had proposed "tangible remedies" but Almunia said they were "simply not enough."

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/eu-turns-down-ups-acquisition-tnt-103335279--finance.html

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PFT: Jets have explored ex-Raiders QB Russell

350x-1AP

The bounty case essentially is over, but bits and pieces of evidence continue to surface.

More than a few bits and pieces have come from the disclosure of a significant portion of the appeal hearing testimony from former Saints interim head coach and current linebackers coach Joe Vitt.

Among many other things, Vitt?s testimony before former Commissioner Paul Tagliabue sheds light on some of the contentious aspects of the relationship between the league office and the organization.? Vitt says that, at one point, Saints owner Tom Benson told NFL V.P. of security Jeff Miller to leave the premises.

?Jeff Miller took a plane ride from New York down to New Orleans, and the way he talked to our owner, what he said to our owner made me want to throw up, to the point where Mr. Benson kicked him off the property and didn?t let him back on the property,? Vitt said, via the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

?This almost killed our owner.? Our owner has done nothing but be a great owner in the National Football League the whole time he?s been in the league. . . .? And now this guy takes a plane ride down and throws some documents in front of our owner?s face, and our owner has got to kick him out of the building?? That?s what we?re dealing with.? That?s fine.?

Vitt also explained that, even though notes generated by former Saints assistant Mike Cerullo indicated that Vitt had offered $5,000 to the alleged bounty on former Vikings quarterback Brett Favre, Miller didn?t believe it happened.

?The investigators, Jeff Miller in particular, acknowledged that I did not give any money to a bounty because he said to me, you know, we heard that your wife is so cheap that you have a hard time getting lunch money every day,? Vitt said.? ?That was his comment to me.? And I said, well, your wife must have a pretty good sense of humor, too, with the clothes you?re wearing right now.?

Vitt also had some strong comments for Cerullo.

?Mike Cerullo is a liar,? Vitt said. ?We?ll get some notes here from Mr. Cerullo. I?ll say this to you, Commissioner, and anybody that?s interested. I?m taking Mike Cerullo to court.? I?m going to sue his ass for the things he said about me, the things he said about this football team.? He?s going to be held accountable for everything he said. I make this offer again.? If we want me to take a lie detector test this afternoon, I will do so.? Or if you want me to do it tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon, I will do so. Mike Cerullo is a liar.? A liar.?

Vitt also talked at length regarding coach Sean Payton?s decision after the 2011 season to part ways with defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.? Payton began to sour on Williams after the head coach caught Williams texting draft picks to the media during the 2011 selection process.

?I would say the final straw was the last two weeks of the season,? Vitt said.? ?Gregg kept coming to Sean every day and wanted his contract extension and wanted his extension done.? And Sean said, well, we?ll talk about it at the end of the season, well knowing what direction Sean was going in.? And the last week of the season, it?s all in the papers, you know, Gregg has gone to St. Louis, it?s his best friend Jeff Fisher, you know, ba-boom, ba-boom, ba-boom, trying to squeeze Sean, trying to squeeze Mickey to get his contract.? And the day after the playoff game that we lost against San Francisco, he went into Sean?s office and says I need to know right now, I need my contract, I?ve got to let Jeff know what I?m doing.? And Sean said, you?re not going to get a contract here.? I think it?s best go to St. Louis with your friend Jeff. And that was it. . . .? It didn?t end pretty. It didn?t end nice.?

There isn?t much nice or pretty about Vitt?s testimony, but it?s compelling and interesting and he has the kind of passion that typically is exhibited by a guy who has been accused of things he didn?t do.

Source: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/01/28/jets-have-explored-jamarcus-russell/related/

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Takes Your Breath Away (talking-points-memo)

Share With Friends: Share on FacebookTweet ThisPost to Google-BuzzSend on GmailPost to Linked-InSubscribe to This Feed | Rss To Twitter | Politics - Top Stories News, News Feeds and News via Feedzilla.

Source: http://news.feedzilla.com/en_us/stories/politics/top-stories/280191679?client_source=feed&format=rss

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Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Coming of Age with the Internet: Remembering Web 1.0

If you comb through the Google Internet Cache?the Roman ruins of the 21st Century? you might stumble across long-abandoned GeoCities pages, lost Usenet postings, and other defunct websites. Over a decade after they were first created, some of your co-workers? instant-message handles probably still channel the zeitgeist of junior high school. Dig into that forgotten desk drawer and you?ll find dozens of America Online CD?s stashed alongside floppy disks, joysticks, and tape drives.

Web 2.0 long since came and conquered. Billions of AOL CD?s now sit in landfills, Geocities is offline, and no one has used a floppy disc in years. But in the mid-90?s, when I came of age, the Internet was more a curiosity than a necessity. Google, Facebook, and Wikipedia didn?t exist, and the so-called information superhighway was mostly empty promise. It was the Internet?s Age of Innocence.

In 1994, all of ten years old, I signed up for America Online. It wasn?t a simple process. After calling AOL?s toll-free line?and paying for the service by phone?I dialed up, the modem hissed, and I was promptly disconnected. Another few tries and I was in, connected at 2400 baud?not that I had any idea what ?baud? meant.

The modem?s ubiquitously loud hiss, amplified over the computer speakers, was the sound of the future. AOL even provided graphics: when we signed on, we were treated to spectacular vision of a lightning bolt crashing. Now this, this was the information superhighway. It was the Wild West out there.

AOL denied me my avatar of choice, just as it did for millions of other Americans. In its infinite wisdom, AOL invariably suggested a four or five-digit number following any screenname. The implication was that we were part of a mass movement?that yes, there really were eighteen hundred and thirty-two Jacob Savages who had already signed up for AOL, and that I was privileged enough to be the 1833rd.

Once connected?and during peak hours, it was virtually impossible to get through on the first try?there wasn?t all that much to do. Back in 1994, AOL wasn?t even hooked into the World Wide Web?you couldn?t browse web pages?so we did the only thing we could do: we went into chat rooms and pretended to be people we weren?t. ?

There were all sorts of chat rooms: Teen chats, Jewish Teen Chats, General Chats, Space Enthusiast chats. It didn?t take long to discover that on the World Wide Web, you could be anyone (it never occurred to us that the people we were chatting with might be impersonating other people themselves).

Dozens of pre-teens from across the nation flooded these chat rooms. Every 30 seconds or so, someone would demand an A/S/L (Age/Sex/Location) check. The responses flooded in: 13/m/NY, 12/f/Minnesota, 11/m/Los Angeles, etc. Having ascertained these fundamentals, we?d ask one another if we were hot, or popular, or what life was like in Minneapolis or New York or Los Angeles. Anticipating the future of social networking, AOL even allowed us to create ?profiles? (favorite movie: ?Austin Powers?), though of course there were no photos involved.

Through good fortune and no small amount charm (I was, after all, a 12/M/NYC), I scored a couple of internet girlfriends. LuvsGuys1 was my first love: a hot blonde on the J.V. cheerleading squad from Arizona. We took each other?s mutual good-lookingness on faith. Once a week for about a year or so, we?d message each other. We had cybersex once, but it was pretty awkward. I don?t think we got past second base.

Eventually AOL sped up its connections and opened itself up to the World Wide Web. No longer forced to malinger at 2400 baud, I upgraded my dial-up modem to 56K (though it never connected at 56K, always at 28.8 or 49.33). For the virile pre-teen, more bandwidth meant one very important thing: more pornography. It no longer took ten minutes to download a single JPEG, and I was in heaven.

I downloaded multiple password-protecting applications to protect my digital porn collection from my parents? prying eyes. With six to eight JPEGS stored on my hard drive, I wasn?t taking any chances.

I didn?t only look at porn (though before Google?s life-changing algorithm, pretty much any search produced a mountain of pornography results). I also visited websites about the theoretics of time travel. Sometimes I?d head over to the People?s Republic of North Korea?s website (still in 1995 beta mode) and think about buying a t-shirt or maybe a nuclear bomb.

Ebay came online right around then. It was easy to game the system: you could write positive feedback about anyone, regardless of whether you?d actually sold them anything. My friends and I left each other dozens of positive feedback. To this day, my ?power seller? rating is at least partly a result of those good old days.

In its way, downloading porn was a lot like a having unprotected sex: it gave your computer venereal diseases. For every couple of hours I spent downloading porn, my computer contracted a virus.

Hackers, of course, were the ones supplying us with this endless stream of venereal disease. In the mid 90?s, hackers ruled supreme. There were newspaper articles about hackers, movies about hackers, after-school specials about hackers. They were superhuman wizards who could bring down the U.S. government with just eight keystrokes. The paranoia was so rampant that Stephen Glass?the now-infamous New Republic plagiarist-reporter?was able to claim that hackers, like actors and athletes, had their own agents: ?[The hackers?] agent, whose business card is emblazoned with the slogan ?super-agent to super-nerds,? claims to represent nearly 300 of them, ages nine to 68,? Glass wrote in 1998.

That Glass? over-the-top article was published is both a testament to reckless fact-checking at The New Republic and to a broader national ignorance about the Internet. Of course, Google didn?t exist yet, so there was no way to google Glass and find out that everything he wrote was a demented lie. On the World Wide Web, aka the information superhighway, anything was possible, even though nothing SPECIFIC was particularly possible.

Hackers hated AOL. In 1995, thanks to AOL?s notoriously poor code and a legendary hacker group known only as ?Warez??and despite having no programming skills whatsoever?I joined the glorious underworld. ?Warez? released a program called ?AOHell,? which enabled the wannabe hacker to ?email-bomb? people to overflow their inbox, to ?IM-bomb? people to boot them offline, and to ?phish? for AOL passwords. I tried downloading AOHell about nine times and probably contracted several viruses in the process. But then I successfully IM-bombed a girl I liked and kicked her off AOL for an hour or so. It was totally worth it.

AOHell was just the beginning of my semi-legal Internet activity. The first song I ever pirated was The Beatles? ?You?ve Got to Hide Your Love Away.? The whole thing was rather low-fi. I played the song on from sort of proto-streaming website?the quality was awful. I then took my tape cassette and recorded the computer speakers playing the song. Let?s just say, the record companies should have seen the writing on the wall.

Before long, my Warez hacker friends had organized private chat rooms devoted to pirating music. Automated ?bots? would email out a list of songs. I?d request song #234 or #538 (they only stocked pop hits, so it would inevitably be something along the lines of Christina Aguilera?s ?Beautiful?), and the bot would email me the MP3 or WAV file. My iPod is still stocked with a few of these late 90?s hacker hits (here?s looking at you, Meredith Brooks). In those pre-iPod days, my 256-slot CD cases were quickly overtaken by CD-R?s, sharpies, and ?Mix CD?s.?

Web 1.0, like our adolescence, ended with a thud. We went off to college, freeing ourselves from both our parents? rules and their slow Internet connections. We were pirates finally allowed on the high seas: Napster, Limewire, and then DC++, allowed us to download all the music and video we wanted. Before long, Google, Facebook, Youtube, and Wikipedia came and swept out the remnants of Web 1.0.

When we arrived as freshmen, we left our laptops home during class ? the lecture halls didn?t have wireless, and we didn?t want to be the ?weird kid? who brought his computer everywhere. By the time we graduated, though, our campuses were all wired, and we were tethered to our screens. But even as the Internet fulfilled previously unimaginable possibilities?videos, social networking, information on demand?the innocence of its original promise seemed a bit lost.

This isn?t an elegy to a lost age in which my friends and I played stickball in the street and/or sat around the arcade playing pong. But my generation sat at a liminal threshold, coming of age with the Internet, not before and not after. Back in the mid-to-late-90?s, the Internet, like pick-up basketball or Super Mario Brothers, was just another thing that you did sometimes.

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Source: http://theamericanreader.com/coming-of-age-with-the-internet-remembering-web-1-0/

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A Way Forward on Immigration?

By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone )

NOTABLES:

IMMIGRATION REFORM TAKES CENTER STAGE: A bipartisan group of senators has agreed to an immigration reform framework that includes a pathway to citizenship for the undocumented, a significant step toward a sweeping overhaul of the nation's immigration system, ABC News-Univision's Jordan Fabian reports. The group of eight senators - four Democrats and four Republicans - identified broad ways to address the core issues facing the country's immigration laws in a four-plus page document, which Senate aides provided to ABC/Univision on condition of anonymity. The principles agreed upon by this "Gang of Eight" include enhancing border security and cracking down on businesses that employ undocumented immigrants. The outline also proposes making it easier for foreigners to come to the United States legally to work or join their families. http://abcn.ws/10XYPPd

WHO IS THE 'GANG OF EIGHT'? The senators behind the framework, Fabian notes, include John McCain (R-Ariz.), who helped lead a failed reform effort in 2007, Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). The senators' announcement comes one day before President Obama will travel to Las Vegas, Nevada, to unveil his own immigration reform plan, which also includes an earned pathway to citizenship and many other elements of the Senate plan. http://abcn.ws/10XYPPd

WHITE HOUSE RESPONSE: From White House spokesman Clark Stevens: "As the President has made clear for some time, immigration reform is an important priority and he is pleased that progress is being made with bipartisan support. At the same time, he will not be satisfied until there is meaningful reform and he will continue to urge Congress to act until that is achieved. The President looks forward to redoubling the Administration's efforts to work with Congress on this important issue this week."

THE ROUNDTABLE:

ABC'S Z. BYRON WOLF: There were at least two separate deals struck to find a comprehensive immigration reform bill during George W. Bush's second term. Both were reached after months of closed-door negotiations on Capitol Hill with a lot of input from Northeast Democrats and Arizona Republicans. Neither could get by a filibuster. But those were half a dozen years ago and more. Now there is a charismatic Latino Republican to lead the charge. And Sen. John McCain, his own presidential aspirations now done, can again take a front seat. But whether the demographic alarm bells of the last two general elections can lead to a bipartisan effort seems settled by this latest proposal. They can. The will is there on both sides of the aisle. But whether that effort that can be passed by a Republican House and get 60 votes in the Senate remains to be seen.

ABC NEWS POLLSTER GARY LANGER: Our ABC News-Washington Post polling underscores the extent to which the immigration issue remains a real challenge for the Republican Party. Overall 57 percent of Americans favor a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants - 82 percent of Hispanics, 71 percent of Democrats, 59 percent of independents - but just 37 percent of Republicans. So far the GOP has failed to reconcile that gap - to find an immigration policy that works both for the party, and for Hispanics. Voila, they lose Hispanics in the 2012 presidential election by 71-27 percent, a margin surpassed just twice before, in 1996 and 1976, in the past 10 presidential elections.

ABC's MARY BRUCE: In something of a parting gift, President Obama made abundantly clear on Sunday night his deep support and fondness for outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who, in turn, left a possible presidential run in 2016 wide open. Sitting together for their first joint interview, you could almost forget that they once politically bludgeoned each other in the 2008 Democratic primary. "I'm going to miss her," Obama told CBS News' Steve Croft on "60 Minutes." Obama said he proposed the joint interview because he wanted to publicly say "thank you" to Clinton for all of her hard work. For those eagerly looking for hints of Clinton's future ambitions, however, the interview certainly felt like a political endorsement. But while Clinton offered no outright denial, when asked about her plans for 2016 ("I don't think either he or I can make predictions about what's going to happen tomorrow or the next year," she said), the president brushed off the question. "You guys are incorrigible," he told Croft. "I was inaugurated four days ago and you're talking about elections four years from now."

ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: It was impossible not to think of the chummy, friendly, laughter-filled "60 Minutes" interview with President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as an endorsement. The passing of the baton was in full effect even as the president called the press "incorrigible" and Clinton protested with a smile that because she is still Secretary of State she's "forbidden from even hearing these questions." But Clinton's name was also mentioned in another interview Sunday, also in a complimentary fashion. On NBC's "Meet the Press," former GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan argued "if we had a Clinton presidency ? I think we would have fixed this fiscal mess by now. That's not the kind of presidency we're dealing with right now." Of course, it was hard to tell which "Clinton" he was talking about, but if Secretary Clinton were to run again and win would that mean a better working relationship with the other side of the aisle? We'll have to remember this and check back then.

VIDEO OF THE DAY: ECCENTRIC MILLIONAIRE WOULD SUPPORT SANTORUM IN 2016. Wealthy conservative investor Foster Friess is best known in Washington, D.C. for helping fund Rick Santorum's presidential campaign. And the multimillionaire says he would support the former Pennsylvania senator again if he runs in 2016, even likening Santorum to Ronald Reagan. "If people let him out of that box of social conservative, and appreciate how much more he brings to the table, I think he's still one of my favorite candidates," Friess told Yahoo News' Olivier Knox and ABC's David Kerley in the latest edition of "Top Line." Friess spent well over a million dollars on Santorum's campaign. For more on Foster Friess, including his new charity, and his ideas on bipartisanship, check out this week's Top Line: http://yhoo.it/SZjxzn

"THIS WEEK" REWIND:

-SEN. BOB MENENDEZ STAYS OUT OF BOOKER-LAUTENBERG SPANKING FEUD. In an interview with ABC's Martha Raddatz on Sunday's edition of "This Week" New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez avoided commenting on whether Newark Mayor Cory Booker "deserves a spanking" for coveting Sen. Frank Lautenberg's seat. RADDATZ: "In your home state between Newark Mayor Cory Booker and 89-year-old Senator Frank Lautenberg, who basically suggested this week that Booker deserved a spanking because he was coveting his seat. Do you agree with that? Should Cory Booker be making moves now?" MENENDEZ: "You know, that election is next year. And all of the back-and-forth now is something I'm really not focused on." RADDATZ: "Is Booker being disrespectful?" MENENDEZ: "You know, that's a question for Senator Lautenberg and Mayor Booker."

-FACEBOOK CO-FOUNDER ON THE CHRIS CHRISTIE, MARK ZUCKERBERG ALLIANCE. How does Chris Hughes, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of The New Republic and Facebook Co-founder, feel about Mark Zuckerberg hosting a fundraiser for Republican Governor Chris Christie? Hughes joined ABC News in a web exclusive to discuss viewer questions from Facebook about Christie, his career successes, The New Republic, and his contributions to Facebook before the "This Week" roundtable on Sunday. This week, Hughes launched a redesign of The New Republic, kicking off with a dynamic interview with President Obama. Before ABC News' Abby Phillip asked Hughes about the sit-down with Obama, she broached the topic of the Christie/ Zuckerberg alliance. "I, for one, have a lot of questions about Chris Christie, particularly because less than a year ago he vetoed a marriage equality bill in the New Jersey state legislature. Which for me personally, I got married to my husband last June, [it] was just really personally frustrating. I mean, there are tens of thousands of couples in New Jersey that can't share their love and be recognized under the law because of that decision. I'm not a single issue voter, and I think most people aren't either, but for me personally, it would raise serious concerns about supporting someone like him." http://abcn.ws/Vqq5ct

-'ZERO DARK THIRTY' FILMMAKERS ON SENATE INQUIRY. During an interview for "This Week," "Zero Dark Thirty," screenwriter and producer Mark Boal told Martha Raddatz that the current Senate inquiry into the Oscar-nominated movie could discourage the making of similar films in the future. "I think that it could discourage other screenwriters or?writers of any kind from making topical movies, it could discourage studios from releasing them," Boal said. "Criticism is fine, and we, I can take criticism onboard?but there is a difference between criticism and investigation. And I think that crosses a line that hasn't been crossed really since the '40s, when you talk about government investigating movies." In December, three members of the Senate Intelligence committee - Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), Carl Levin (D-Mich.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) - asked the CIA to provide information about the details it gave Boal and "Zero Dark Thirty" director Kathryn Bigelow about the effort to find and later kill Osama bin Laden.

BUZZ

OBAMA, CLINTON ON U.S. FOREIGN POLICY: FOOLS RUSH IN. President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in their wide-ranging joint interview on CBS' "60 Minutes," defended what some critics have called the administration's unwillingness to engage in the world, particularly on Syria, which Clinton called a "wicked problem," ABC's Dana Hughes reports. Obama pointed to the U.S. role in deposing of Libyan leader Moamer Gadhafi and supporting Egypt's elections following the Arab spring, as success stories. But the president said Syria is a more complicated issue. "We do nobody a service when we leap before we look, where we take on things without having thought out the consequences of it," the president said, calling Syria a classic example of how the United States should be clear about its objectives whenever taking any action. ? Clinton, who has spent the last year doing intense diplomacy on Syria, including attending global meetings with allies, as well as meeting her Russian counterpart to try to find a solution to the conflict, backed up the president's sentiments."I'm older than the president," she joked, then turned serious. "I remember some of the speeches of Eisenhower as a young girl. You know you've got to be careful, you have to be thoughtful, you can't rush in, especially now where it's more complex now than it's been in decades."

REVEALED: OBAMA'S SKEET SHOOTING HOBBY. Amid a push from the White House and progressive Democrats for tighter gun control laws, President Obama revealed this weekend he made time for shooting during retreats, notes ABC's Matthew Larotonda. The revelation came in an interview published this morning in which the president was asked if he had ever held a gun. "Yes, in fact, up at Camp David, we do skeet shooting all the time," he responded to the New Republic. "Not the girls, but oftentimes guests of mine go up there. And I have a profound respect for the traditions of hunting that trace back in this country for generations. And I think those who dismiss that out of hand make a big mistake," he said. Last week the president signed several executive orders strengthening gun regulation and revealed proposals that, if enacted, would include bans on assault weapons and high capacity magazines. http://abcn.ws/VqlTJC

REPUBLICAN RE-BRANDING: THE HAPPY PARTY? Nearly three months after losing the 2012 presidential election, Republicans seem to have a simple prescription for what ails their party: Turn those frowns upside down. "We want to build a massive party that's exciting, that smiles, has a good message across America, and that's what you're going to see," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus told reporters at a news conference on Friday shortly after he was re-elected to another two year term. Priebus may be following the advice of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who told his fellow Republicans at the same gathering on Thursday to "learn to be a happy party" and to try to be "cheerful and persistent." It's all part of the GOP's effort to re-brand itself as a more inclusive and inviting party after suffering stinging losses at the polls on Election Day last November, especially among some key segments of the electorate like Hispanics, African Americans and young voters. "It doesn't matter where you live, who you are, what you look like, or what your last name is," Priebus said on Friday, "because we will be a party for everyone, everywhere." haron Day, a GOP activist from Florida who serves as co-chair of the RNC, put the party's new approach even more bluntly: "I will talk to a head of lettuce if I can get them to vote Republican." http://abcn.ws/YtaxFJ

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: PALIN AND FOX NEWS PART WAYS. Former Alaska governor Sarah Palin and Fox News have parted ways, a source close to Palin told ABC News. The same source said it was her decision to leave the network and that Fox offered her an opportunity to renew her contract, reports ABC's Shushannah Walshe and Chris Good. In a statement from Fox News, Executive Vice President for Programming Bill Shine did not comment on whose decision it was to end the relationship, instead saying, "We have thoroughly enjoyed our association with Gov. Palin. We wish her the best in her future endeavors." Palin originally signed on with Fox as a contributor in January 2010, when the network announced her hiring along with plans for her to "host periodic episodes of Fox News Channel's 'Real American Stories,' a series exploring inspirational real-life tales of overcoming adversity throughout the American landscape that will debut in 2010." http://abcn.ws/VnHNwY

WHO'S TWEETING?

@SteveCase: Tech firms holding out hope for #immigration reform http://bit.ly/Wqkjp6 "Policymakers have deeper understanding of importance" #STEM

@CPHeinze: Norquist on 2016: "We have a wealth of opportunity. You guys are stuck with Cuomo and that character from Maryland." http://tinyurl.com/at8dm7z

@jimgeraghty: Iowans Prepare for a Long-Forgotten Ancient Ritual: Open Seat Senate Race http://bit.ly/XM9Zoc

@JenniferPreston: Your thoughts on new #immigration agreement? Links to interesting reaction? Details of deal w/document here - http://nyti.ms/Uw9cKy

@RealClearScott: CT Gov. Dan Malloy may be vulnerable in '14 as GOP looks to regain foothold in New England: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2013/01/28/malloy_may_face_tough_re-election_fight_in_conn_116821.html ?

Also Read

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/way-forward-immigration-note-142009851--abc-news-politics.html

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Several Australian towns flooded, 4 people killed

In this photo supplied by NSW State Emergency Service, a mother and her children walk through floodwaters caused by torrential rains in Lismore, northern New South Wales, Australia Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013. Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast. With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety. (AP Photo/NSW State Emergency Service, Samantha Cantwell ) NO SALES

In this photo supplied by NSW State Emergency Service, a mother and her children walk through floodwaters caused by torrential rains in Lismore, northern New South Wales, Australia Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013. Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast. With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety. (AP Photo/NSW State Emergency Service, Samantha Cantwell ) NO SALES

In this photo supplied by NSW State Emergency Service, a police officer gestures on Bruxner Highway, covered with floodwaters caused by torrential rains, in Lismore, northern New South Wales, Australia Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013. Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast. With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety. (AP Photo/NSW State Emergency Service, Samantha Cantwell ) NO SALES

In this photo supplied by NSW State Emergency Service, people use a kayak to make their way through floodwaters caused by torrential rains in Lismore, northern New South Wales, Australia Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013. Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast. With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety. (AP Photo/NSW State Emergency Service, Samantha Cantwell ) NO SALES

In this photo supplied by NSW State Emergency Service, two children ride on a boat in floodwaters caused by torrential rains in Lismore, northern New South Wales, Australia Tuesday, Jan. 29, 2013. Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast. With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety. (AP Photo/NSW State Emergency Service, Samantha Cantwell ) NO SALES

In this image made with a slow shutter speed, a man uses an umbrella to fend off the rain as he walks on a street in Sydney, Australia, Monday, Jan. 28, 2013. Torrential rain over the weekend flooded several towns in eastern Australia, and three deaths were reported. (AP Photo/Rick Rycroft)

BRISBANE, Australia (AP) ? Thousands of Australians huddled in shelters Tuesday as torrential rains flooded cities and towns in the northeast, killing four people and prompting around 1,000 helicopter evacuations.

With floodwaters expected to peak in most of the worst-hit areas later Tuesday, officials were rushing to move those in the highest-risk areas to safety.

In the hard-hit city of Bundaberg, 385 kilometers (240 miles) north of Brisbane, rescue crews plucked 1,000 people to safety after the river that runs through town broke its banks, sending fast-moving, muddy water pouring into streets and homes. Around 1,500 residents fled to evacuation centers, while patients at the local hospital were being airlifted to Brisbane as a precaution.

"Listen to the roar of the water ? that's not helicopters," Queensland Premier Campbell Newman said. "You see a lot of locations where there are literally sort of rapids. There's white water out there, so it is very dangerous."

Between 2,500 and 3,000 homes and 200 to 300 businesses were inundated with water, Bundaberg Mayor Mal Forman said.

Queensland residents and officials were being particularly cautious, after floodwaters from heavy rain in late 2010 and early 2011 left much of the state under water in the worst flooding Australia had seen in decades. The 2010-2011 floods killed 35 people, damaged or destroyed 30,000 homes and businesses and left Brisbane, Australia's third-largest city, under water for days.

The current flood crisis was not as severe, though some areas in northern New South Wales were hit by more than half a meter (about 20 inches) of rain, State Emergency Services Deputy Commissioner Steve Pearce said. Four people have died, including a 3-year-old boy who was hit by a falling tree in Brisbane.

"We're expecting flash flooding, we're expecting trees to be brought down, wires to be brought down by these winds," Pearce said. "We're expecting a very challenging 24 hours in front of us."

In the New South Wales city of Grafton, 600 kilometers (370 miles) north of Sydney, the river peaked just below the top of the levee wall, prompting relief among officials who had ordered an evacuation affecting 2,500 residents.

"It does appear as though the worst of it is over," New South Wales Premier Barry O'Farrell said.

The flooding was caused by the remnants of a tropical cyclone that sparked tornadoes and created sea foam that came ashore on the Queensland coast. The foam covered roads in places, causing traffic to be diverted. Elsewhere, beach-goers waded into the bubbles to pose for photographs.

Australia has been suffering through a summer of weather extremes, with blistering temperatures and dry conditions igniting hundreds of wildfires across the southern half of the country.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2013-01-29-Australia-Flood/id-dd43dc42237844adac45f1f3f4a7ce9f

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Manufacturing problem likely caused F-35B engine failure: sources

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Pentagon and industry investigators have pinpointed a manufacturing quality problem as the most likely cause of an engine failure that led to the grounding of the Marine Corps version of the Lockheed Martin Corp F-35 fighter jet, sources familiar with the investigation told Reuters.

Pentagon officials are expected to finalize the finding and the proposed fix at a meeting on Monday, said the sources, who were not authorized to speak publicly. They said the F-35B should be able to resume flights as soon as the "nonconforming" parts supplied by a unit of Parker Hannifin Corp are replaced.

The grounding did not affect the Air Force or Navy versions of the radar-evading new fighter since they do not use the same part.

The Pentagon grounded all 25 F-35B jets on January 18 after a propulsion line associated with the B-model's exhaust system failed just before takeoff during a training flight at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida.

The part in question enables actuator movement for the exhaust system associated with the B-model's engine. Instead of traditional hydraulic fluid, it uses fuel as the operating fluid to reduce weight.

An initial inspection discovered a detached propulsion line in the rear part of the engine compartment, and subsequent tests showed the line was not built to specifications by Stratoflex, a unit of Parker Hannifin.

"It wasn't built to specification as it should have been," said one of the sources. "But there's a very small population of the tubes, and the problem should be fixed soon."

Stratoflex is a subcontractor to engine maker Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies Corp, which builds the engines for the single-engine, single-seat fighter jet along with Britain's Rolls-Royce Plc.

No comment was immediately available from Stratoflex.

The speedy conclusion of the investigation is good news for the F-35 program, which is racing to complete an aggressive schedule of flight tests this year.

The F-35 program has completed about 34 percent of its planned test flight program, but Lockheed is already building production models of the new warplane.

Lockheed is building three different models of the F-35 fighter jet for the U.S. military and eight countries that helped pay for its development: Britain, Canada, Italy, Turkey, Denmark, the Netherlands, Australia and Norway.

The Pentagon plans to buy 2,443 of the warplanes in coming decades, although many analysts believe U.S. budget constraints and deficits will eventually reduce that overall number.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal-Esa; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/manufacturing-problem-likely-caused-f-35b-engine-failure-155039613--sector.html

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Sunday, January 27, 2013

Report: Japan to air ultra-high-def TV in 2014

7 hrs.

TOKYO???The Japanese government is set to launch the world's first 4K TV broadcast in July 2014, roughly two years ahead of schedule, to help stir demand for ultra high-definition televisions, the Asahi newspaper reported on Sunday without citing sources.

The service will begin from communications satellites, followed by satellite broadcasting and ground digital broadcasting, the report said.

The 4K TVs, which boast four times the resolution of current high-definition TVs, are now on sale by Japanese makers including Sony, Panasonic and Sharp. Other manufacturers include South Korea's LG Electronics.

Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications had aimed to kick-start the 4K TV service in 2016. That has been brought forward to July 2014, when the final match of the 2014 football World Cup is set to take place in Brazil, the Asahi report said.

In Japan, the development of super high-definition 8K TVs is in progress, and the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications plans to launch the test 8K TV broadcast in 2016, two years ahead of schedule, it said.

Copyright 2013 Thomson Reuters.

Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/technology/gadgetbox/japan-reportedly-targets-2014-worlds-first-ultra-high-def-4k-1C8135106

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Funeral eCommerce: Generate Revenue From Your Funeral Home ...

You are here: Home / Editorials / Funeral eCommerce: Generate Revenue From Your Funeral Home Website (Without Doing a Thing)





The future of your funeral firm comes down to one thing ? adapting to today?s families. Thanks to the Baby Boomers and the explosion of the Internet, your families? and community?s preferences have changed. In order to survive, you?ll need to tap into those changing needs.

If you?re like most funeral professionals, you?re probably searching for better ways to support the emotional needs of your families, and build a deeper connection with your community. Wouldn?t it be great if you could achieve these goals without increasing expenses for your funeral home or your families?

The good news is you can. As an added bonus, you?ll increase your revenue and your bottom line? but how? Funeral homes across the country have discovered a solution to help them do just that. It?s called funeral eCommerce, and it presents a huge opportunity for the funeral profession.

The Opportunity for the Funeral Profession
eCommerce is a well-established online tool that has brought success to many companies (think Amazon and eBay). With $240 million already being spent on sympathy gifts and flowers online every year, eCommerce taps into a newfound revenue stream for the funeral profession.

So how exactly can you leverage this powerful tool to support your families and generate revenue? Try opening an eCommerce store on your website offering sympathy gifts and flowers.

Using funeral eCommerce gives you the ability to sell flowers and sympathy gifts online, positioning your website as a one-stop-shop for your families and community.

Funeral eCommerce: The Facts

? 66% of people prefer to shop online vs. in-store

? 73% of consumers do at least half of their shopping online

? 4 out of 5 consumers shop online for a broader selection

? 97% of online shoppers are motivated by the convenience of shopping online
Why You Should Start Selling Online
?Offering eCommerce on my website isn?t about selling products. It?s about making the selection of a gift or flowers more personal for the community by offering it from a place they already trust and are familiar with.? ? Mandy Rodriguez, Brown Funeral Home & Cremation Services

Increase the Level of Service You Provide Your Community
Your community is eager to support a family who has experienced the loss of a loved one. When a death occurs, your funeral firm?s website is often the first place they go. They?ll visit your site to read an obituary, find out service times, leave a condolence, or sign the online guestbook. Using eCommerce on your website transforms it into a valuable resource that provides a family with a convenient way to show grieving families how much they care.

When you offer families the opportunity to purchase sympathy gifts through your website, you?ve simplified what could be a difficult, time-consuming situation for them. Thanks to you, they won?t have to deal with the hassle of getting to the local florist or gift shop before closing.

?When my uncle passed away I was extremely concerned about his wife and family. So I took the time to go to a local gift store to search for the right gift. I then needed to have it wrapped. All of this took about an hour. I wish I could have purchased the gift directly on the funeral home website.? ? Theresa Berquist, Illinois

Help Your Families Through the Grieving Process
88% of grief therapists agree that sympathy gifts and flowers are an effective aid in the grieving process. By adding the ability to make these purchases on your funeral home website, you?re helping your community support the emotional needs of your families without adding to their funeral service expenses.

Even more, out-of-town families or people who can?t make it to the service can still comfort your families by sending flowers or gifts when they need it most. In fact, more than 80% of online sympathy gift purchases are from out-of-town families.
Uncover a Newfound Stream of Revenue
It?s no secret that funeral firms have been taking a hit over the last couple of years?experiencing more pricing pressure and higher cremation rates?resulting in an overall decline in revenue.

eCommerce uncovers a new, untapped revenue source for the funeral profession. By incorporating an eCommerce store into your funeral firm?s website, you?re tapping into the $240 million industry that already exists. Keep in mind that eCommerce doesn?t take away from the products and services you currently offer. It?s simply an extension of your services for those who are already looking for them online.

Turn Website Traffic Into Dollars
Remember the old adage ?If I had a nickel for every time?I?d be rich?? Well, now you can get a nickel for every visitor to your website. With an eCommerce store, there?s an opportunity to turn every visitor who is reading obituaries, looking up service times and signing online guest books into a paying customer.

Results will vary depending on the funeral eCommerce solution your funeral firm chooses and the products you choose to sell on your website, but with the right solution, you can a earn commissions on every product sold.

Typically No Effort or Investment Required
If you choose the right funeral eCommerce solution, your staff won?t have to take on any new responsibilities. The right vendor handles all of the logistics ? from coordinating with your favorite local florists, to ordering, billing, shipping, and even customer service.

Best of all, some solutions won?t cost you a dime ? regardless of your current website provider. That means if your firm decides eCommerce isn?t for you, there?s no risk or investment to put into it.

Opening an eCommerce store on your website is easier than you think. Every day, more and more funeral homes are turning to this powerful online tool to support their families better and grow their revenue like never before. FBA

Joe Joachim is the CEO and Founder of funeralOne, a technology company transforming the way the world honors life and deals with loss. funeralOne?s solutions include: website design, aftercare, funeral eCommerce, and personalization software. For more information call 866.790-6402, or email info@funeralone.com, or visit the informative website at www.funeralone.com/FBA.

Source: http://www.funeralbusinessadvisor.com/?p=7212

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Villanova upsets No. 3 Syracuse 75-71 in overtime

PHILADELPHIA (AP) ? Ryan Arcidiacono hit the tying 3-pointer with 2.2 seconds left in regulation, and James Bell hit consecutive 3s in overtime to send Villanova to its second win over a Top 5 team this week, 75-71 over No. 3 Syracuse on Saturday.

The Wildcats defeated No. 5 Louisville 73-64 on Tuesday and became the first unranked team to beat two Top 5 teams in the same season since Florida State in 2011-12, according to STATS LLC.

Arcidiacono's 3-point attempt to tie with about 25 seconds left in regulation was off the mark. Syracuse's Michael Carter-Williams missed the front end of a 1-and-1 and JayVaughn Pinkston of the Wildcats grabbed the rebound.

Bell missed a 3 and Mouphtaou Yarou grabbed the offensive rebound. Syracuse decided not to foul, giving Yarou time to kick it out to Arcidiacono. He let go a leaner from just beyond the 3-point line to tie the game at 61, force overtime and send the crowd into a frenzy.

With the Orange (18-2, 6-1 Big East) down two points in overtime, Brandon Triche made one free throw with 46.5 seconds left.

Bell followed with a layup to for a 71-68 lead and the Wildcats (13-7, 4-3) held on from the free throw line.

Philly's college fans came down with a case of court-storming fever this week after Villanova's win over Louisville and La Salle's 54-53 win the next night over No. 9 Butler. At the Wells Fargo Center, home of the NHL's Flyers, the fans made it a Philly hoops hat trick, rushing the court in celebration of one of the biggest regular-season weeks in Villanova history.

Florida State beat No.3 North Carolina and No. 4 Duke in its big week.

Darrun Hilliard scored 25 points and Yarou had 14 points and 16 rebounds for the Wildcats while Bell scored 13 points.

Triche led the Orange with 23 points and Carter-Williams scored 17 points. The Orange had an eight-game winning streak and both of their losses came to Philadelphia teams. They lost to Temple on Dec. 22.

The Orange clearly could have use James Southerland in the tight game. Southerland, second on the team in scoring at 13.6 points and the team leader with 33 3-pointers, was declared out indefinitely because of an eligibility matter involving academics that has yet to be resolved.

Jerami Grant, who played well in Southerland's absence, fouled out with 5:22 left and the Orange up one. His fifth foul was against Hilliard. Hilliard missed both from the line, the Orange stormed down in transition off the defensive board, and Triche hit a 3 for a 57-53 lead.

The Orange just could never put them away. They missed six of eight shots in overtime and were only 5 of 14 overall from 3-point range.

Grant's 3-pointer early in the second half gave the Orange their first lead of the game, 33-32.

The Wildcats gave all the students standing behind each basket and dressed in white an early reason to think they would be rushing again. They opened the game on a 10-0 run and stretched the lead to 25-13. But the fun didn't last long.

Triche, a 50 percent shooter on the season, hit Syracuse's first 3-pointer of the half to slice the lead to four. He tipped in a basket at the buzzer to cut the lead to 32-26.

Syracuse missed 10 of its first 14 shots and finished at 29 percent for the half.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/villanova-upsets-no-3-syracuse-75-71-overtime-183853971--spt.html

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Global warming less extreme than feared? New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations

Jan. 25, 2013 ? Policymakers are attempting to contain global warming at less than 2?C. New estimates from a Norwegian project on climate calculations indicate this target may be more attainable than many experts have feared.

Climate researcher Caroline Leck of Stockholm University has evaluated the Norwegian project and is enthusiastic.

"These results are truly sensational," says Dr Leck. "If confirmed by other studies, this could have far-reaching impacts on efforts to achieve the political targets for climate."

Temperature rise is levelling off

After Earth's mean surface temperature climbed sharply through the 1990s, the increase has levelled off nearly completely at its 2000 level. Ocean warming also appears to have stabilised somewhat, despite the fact that CO2 emissions and other anthropogenic factors thought to contribute to global warming are still on the rise.

It is the focus on this post-2000 trend that sets the Norwegian researchers' calculations on global warming apart.

Sensitive to greenhouse gases

Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much the global mean temperature is expected to rise if we continue increasing our emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

CO2 is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activity. A simple way to measure climate sensitivity is to calculate how much the mean air temperature will rise if we were to double the level of overall CO2 emissions compared to the world's pre-industrialised level around the year 1750.

If we continue to emit greenhouse gases at our current rate, we risk doubling that atmospheric CO2 level in roughly 2050.

Mutual influences

A number of factors affect the formation of climate development. The complexity of the climate system is further compounded by a phenomenon known as feedback mechanisms, i.e. how factors such as clouds, evaporation, snow and ice mutually affect one another.

Uncertainties about the overall results of feedback mechanisms make it very difficult to predict just how much of the rise in Earth's mean surface temperature is due to humanmade emissions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2 levels is probably between 2?C and 4.5?C, with the most probable being 3?C of warming.

In the Norwegian project, however, researchers have arrived at an estimate of 1.9?C as the most likely level of warming.

Humanmade climate forcing

"In our project we have worked on finding out the overall effect of all known feedback mechanisms," says project manager Terje Berntsen, who is a professor at the University of Oslo's Department of Geosciences and a senior research fellow at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research -- Oslo (CICERO). The project has received funding from the Research Council of Norway's Large-scale Programme on Climate Change and its Impacts in Norway (NORKLIMA).

"We used a method that enables us to view the entire earth as one giant 'laboratory' where humankind has been conducting a collective experiment through our emissions of greenhouse gases and particulates, deforestation, and other activities that affect climate."

For their analysis, Professor Berntsen and his colleagues entered all the factors contributing to human-induced climate forcings since 1750 into their model. In addition, they entered fluctuations in climate caused by natural factors such as volcanic eruptions and solar activity. They also entered measurements of temperatures taken in the air, on ground, and in the oceans.

The researchers used a single climate model that repeated calculations millions of times in order to form a basis for statistical analysis. Highly advanced calculations based on Bayesian statistics were carried out by statisticians at the Norwegian Computing Center.

2000 figures make the difference

When the researchers at CICERO and the Norwegian Computing Center applied their model and statistics to analyse temperature readings from the air and ocean for the period ending in 2000, they found that climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will most likely be 3.7?C, which is somewhat higher than the IPCC prognosis.

But the researchers were surprised when they entered temperatures and other data from the decade 2000-2010 into the model; climate sensitivity was greatly reduced to a "mere" 1.9?C.

Professor Berntsen says this temperature increase will first be upon us only after we reach the doubled level of CO2 concentration (compared to 1750) and maintain that level for an extended time, because the oceans delay the effect by several decades.

Natural changes also a major factor

The figure of 1.9?C as a prediction of global warming from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration is an average. When researchers instead calculate a probability interval of what will occur, including observations and data up to 2010, they determine with 90% probability that global warming from a doubling of CO2 concentration would lie between 1.2?C and 2.9?C.

This maximum of 2.9?C global warming is substantially lower than many previous calculations have estimated. Thus, when the researchers factor in the observations of temperature trends from 2000 to 2010, they significantly reduce the probability of our experiencing the most dramatic climate change forecast up to now.

Professor Berntsen explains the changed predictions: "The Earth's mean temperature rose sharply during the 1990s. This may have caused us to overestimate climate sensitivity.

"We are most likely witnessing natural fluctuations in the climate system -- changes that can occur over several decades -- and which are coming on top of a long-term warming. The natural changes resulted in a rapid global temperature rise in the 1990s, whereas the natural variations between 2000 and 2010 may have resulted in the levelling off we are observing now."

Climate issues must be dealt with

Terje Berntsen emphasises that his project's findings must not be construed as an excuse for complacency in addressing human-induced global warming. The results do indicate, however, that it may be more within our reach to achieve global climate targets than previously thought.

Regardless, the fight cannot be won without implementing substantial climate measures within the next few years.

Sulphate particulates

The project's researchers may have shed new light on another factor: the effects of sulphur-containing atmospheric particulates.

Burning coal is the main way that humans continue to add to the vast amounts of tiny sulphate particulates in the atmosphere. These particulates can act as condensation nuclei for cloud formation, cooling the climate indirectly by causing more cloud cover, scientists believe. According to this reasoning, if Europe, the US and potentially China reduce their particulate emissions in the coming years as planned, it should actually contribute to more global warming.

But the findings of the Norwegian project indicate that particulate emissions probably have less of an impact on climate through indirect cooling effects than previously thought.

So the good news is that even if we do manage to cut emissions of sulphate particulates in the coming years, global warming will probably be less extreme than feared.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by The Research Council of Norway. The original article was written by B?rd Amundsen/Else Lie; translation: Darren McKellep/Carol B. Eckmann.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/top_news/top_science/~3/T3NUeZNN3E4/130125103927.htm

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Saturday, January 26, 2013

The Zen Of LTBH Investing In Volatile Small Caps: Organova, A ...

Ah, Grasshopper, so you are troubled by the changing value of your share in Organova Holdings, Inc. (ONVO.PK)? You say in June it was worth $10.90 and three weeks later it was worth $1.93. You say that throughout most of December, it was worth little more than $2.00, but Monday of this week it rose to $6.00 before falling Tuesday to as low as $4.00, and now you wonder about tomorrow? Sit down Grasshopper, stop pulling your hair, and listen to how a LTBH Zen Master waits for a butterfly to stop its fluttering and alight.

Transformative Technologies and the LTBH Investor

We are long-term, buy and hold ("LTBH") investors, you and I, and so we hold a mixture of value and growth equities. A subcategory of our growth equities is companies possessed with the potential of a transformative technology.

By transformative technology, we mean a unique, proprietary product with the potential to fundamentally change a significant aspect of the market.

Some of companies with transformative potential are large and established, like International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) with its big data and carbon nanotube technologies or ABB, Ltd. (ABB) with its direct current circuit breaker. These companies lumber across the earth with nary a sideways glance; there are no predators large enough to harm them, only choosing a wrong path leading to a barren landscape threatens their existence.

Others are smaller and fear predators; they scurry through the underbrush, eating smaller creatures but growing in confidence, companies like Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN) with voice-recognition technologies or Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) providing natural gas fueling to truckers.

And still others are the smallest of all, tiny little companies just emerging from their nests or pupa, companies like Arcam AB (AMAVF.OB) selling a few dozen high end 3D printers annually to aerospace and medical companies, or Organova Holdings, Inc., developing the 3D printing of human tissue.

It is these babes that cause us such worries, Grasshopper. Like little ONVO, recently emerged and starting to flutter its wings. If we watch it too closely, we become dizzy with its ups and downs. The Zen of LTBH investing, Grasshopper, is to visualize the path and not watch the fluttering.

The LTBH Philosophy

Remember, Grasshopper, why we are LTBH investors and not day traders, mutual fund, or ETF investors:

  • Equity markets offer superior returns to many other investing options, so we ask not whether to invest in equities, we ask how to invest in equities
  • We know the path of frequent trading costs more in broker fees, capital gains taxes, time and energy
  • We know what we cannot know; professional traders have the edge in timeliness of information, speed of execution, and transaction costs
  • We know that, with discipline, we can win against mutual funds (because of their burden of fees and expenses and, in some cases, our ability to invest in smaller companies) and we can win against ETFs (because of their expenses and our ability to be more selective).

The LTBH Rationale for Investing in Organova

Remember, Grasshopper, the reasons why we invested in Organova. Its transformative technology is the 3D printing of human tissues for drug discovery and development, biological resources, and therapeutic implantation. It is conceivable that one day Organova machines could print entire human organs like a liver, a kidney or a heart to be therapeutically implanted into a person and save their life. This potential is the very embodiment of a transformative technology.

Yet we also know that Organova is still a delicate creature. It is a long way from having a proven product and it is incurring substantial operating losses. In the third quarter of 2012, according to its 10Q filing and an excellent Seeking Alpha article by PropThink, it had essentially three sources to its $469,238 operating revenue:

  • $298,800 in collaboration fees from United Therapeutics (UTHR)
  • $75,000 in collaboration fees from Pfizer (PFE). This collaboration expired in December 31, 2012 and is expected to be replaced with a new agreement, but no such agreement has yet been announced.
  • $95,500 from a National Institutes of Health grant

We know its expenses are running at 182% of revenues, comprised of selling, general and administrative expenses at $550,157 and research and development expenses at $304,251. But still the tiny company expresses confidence in its financial position. At September 30, 2012, they report having working capital of $7.2 million, "sufficient to fund our ongoing operations? for at least the next 12 months." In addition, Organova is in the process of resolving outstanding stock options that will remove a large liability from its balance sheet and position it to move from OTC to the NASDAQ capital markets in 2013.

What is Organova's Future Value?

We do not know what the future holds for Organova, only that it lies somewhere on a continuum between nothingness and becoming a multi-billion dollar behemoth. The possibilities are likely distributed on a bell-shaped curve with some outcome towards the middle as the most likely.

But with this knowledge, and some simple probability calculations, we can formulate an estimate of Organova's long-term value and thus find a Zen-like peace as the market flutters before us. Consider Organova's future as depending on two key issues: (1) proving great value in the 3D printing of human tissue and (2) establishing exclusivity or dominance with this technology. If both of these issues develop strongly in Organova's favor, it will become fabulously valuable. But there's a high degree of risk that one or both may not fully occur. There may be as yet undiscovered technical reasons why 3D printing is not feasible, or why it will be supplanted by another, superior method of creating human tissue. Another company may invent an alternative method for 3D printing of human tissue without violating Organova's intellectual property rights.

Using these two issues, we can project a range of potential outcomes for Organova and lay the basis for calculating an expected present value of the stock. As an example, I would propose that each of the following five scenarios are potential outcomes for Organova:

  • Scenario #1: Organova has minimal value (five year target share price $0 to $2). 3D printing of human tissue proves to have little value. Organova may go out of business, be acquired by someone else, or survive as a small company selling a limited number of 3D printers to research organizations.
  • Scenario #2: Organova has a value of $100 million to $500 million (five year target share price $2 to $10). Organova has annual earnings of $10 to $25 million a few hundred to a few thousand 3D printers annually, plus supplies and technical support, again to research organizations.
  • Scenario #3: Organova has a value of $500 million to $2 billion (five year target share price $10 to $40). 3D printing of human tissues becomes a standard mainstream research methodology and Organova is the premier provider of this technology. Many thousands of printers are sold annually. Organova trends towards annual earnings in the range of $50 to $100 million.
  • Scenario #4: Organova has a value of $2 to $5 billion (five year target share price $40 to $110). 3D printing of human tissues becomes an accepted therapeutic methodology for creating implants. There are competitors who have created alternatives around Organova's intellectual property protections. Organova shows the potential to generate eventual earnings in the hundreds of millions.
  • Scenario #5: Organova has a value of more than $5 billion (five year target share price more than $110). 3D printing of human tissues is an accepted therapeutic methodology and there are effectively no competitive alternatives. Organova has the potential to generate tens of billions in revenues and billions or more in earnings.

Don't Panic! Stay Calm. Ommmm?

So, Grasshopper, do you know that it's not the fluttering of the stock price that concerns us, it's the journey's end. If you agree with the assumptions I've described, we can assign probabilities to each, estimate what Organova's value might be if each scenario occurred, and then calculate an expected value. (If you don't agree with the assumptions I've described, it's a simple exercise to create your own). Look at this table I've drawn here in the sand:

Expected Organova Share Value
5Y TargetNPVProb.Value
Scenario #1$0.00$0.0020%$0.00
Scenario #2$2.00$1.2420%$0.25
Scenario #3$10.00$6.2120%$1.24
Scenario #4$40.00$24.8420%$4.97
Scenario #5$110.00$68.3020%$13.66
$20.12

In Scenario #2, for example, Organova shares would have an estimated value of $2.00 in five years. Discounting this by 10% per year, we calculate a Net Present Value of $1.24. We assume this scenario has a 20% chance of occurring, so the expected value of Scenario #2 is $0.24. By adding the expected value of all the outcomes we identified, we arrive at a share value today that reflects our expected returns: $20.12.

Meditate on this, Grasshopper, for this guides us to know where our "buy", "sell" and "hold" prices lie. If the price tomorrow hits $20.12, we should sell. We might even sell for a little bit less than this in order to grab a sure thing. But we aren't going to sell for, say, $12.00 what we think is worth $20.12.

To find our "buy" and "hold" points, we must reflect deeply on what our table of probabilities is telling us. One thing it tells us that there's a 60% chance that Organova isn't worth more than $6.21 today. The only reason we're not selling at $6.21 is because we're hoping that Scenario #4 or #5 will occur and Organova is a "home run" stock. Yet our assumptions say that, much as we might hope this will happen, the odds less than 50%.

So, Grasshopper, I would certainly not "buy" Organova at more than $6.21. In fact, being somewhat cautious, I would likely split the difference between the $6.21 and the $1.24 and use the resulting $3.72 as the most I would pay. My rationale is that $3.72 is the point where I have a 50% chance of getting at least a 10% return on my investment over the next five years. (Note, however, that if I get less than a 10% return, it will probably only be a little less; on the other hand, if I get more than a 10% return, I might get much, much more).

I believe, Grasshopper, that LTBH investors should have a small place for volatile small-cap stocks in their portfolios. Not just one, but several because the chances of any one being a home run is small, but the return from a home run will offset losses from the others which don't develop.

As we hold these stocks, we need to realize that there are others who trade using different philosophies. There will be great volatility in many small stocks. Don't let the fluttering of the butterfly become a fluttering in your stomach. Keep your eye on the prize, Grasshopper. We LTBH investors are not looking to sell at $4 or $6 or $10; while we continue to believe this stock can be a home run, we're holding. I find that doing this sometimes requires the patience of a Zen master.

Disclosure: I am long ONVO.PK, AMAVF.OB, IBM, ABB, CLNE, NUAN. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. (More...)

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1135101-the-zen-of-ltbh-investing-in-volatile-small-caps-organova-a-case-in-point?source=feed

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